Nonparametric Distribution
Analysis - Arbitrary Censoring

Multiple Failure Modes Analysis (Turnbull Estimation Method) - Probability of Survival

  

The survival probabilities are the probability that the product survives until a particular time. Use these values to:

·    Determine whether your product meets reliability requirements

·    Compare the reliability of two or more designs of a product

Example Output

Failure Mode: Failure = Bearing

         Survival   Standard   95.0% Normal CI

 Time  Probability      Error     Lower     Upper

50000     0.939394  0.0293704  0.881829  0.996959

60000     0.842215  0.0458749  0.752302  0.932128

70000     0.704711  0.0587451  0.589572  0.819849

80000     0.596294  0.0642532  0.470360  0.722228

90000     0.538587  0.0661109  0.409012  0.668162

 

 

Failure Mode: Failure = Gasket

          Survival   Standard   95.0% Normal CI

 Time  Probability      Error     Lower    Upper

30000     0.962963  0.0209836  0.921836  1.00000

40000     0.901235  0.0331496  0.836262  0.96621

50000     0.809805  0.0442752  0.723027  0.89658

60000     0.751962  0.0496685  0.654613  0.84931

70000     0.700692  0.0543920  0.594085  0.80730

80000     0.660652  0.0581878  0.546606  0.77470

90000     0.616608  0.0620861  0.494922  0.73829

 

 

Failure Mode: Failure = Bearing Gasket

          Survival   Standard   95.0% Normal CI

 Time  Probability      Error     Lower    Upper

30000     0.962963  0.0209836  0.921836  1.00000

40000     0.901235  0.0331496  0.836262  0.96621

50000     0.765432  0.0470809  0.673155  0.85771

60000     0.641975  0.0532688  0.537570  0.74638

70000     0.506173  0.0555513  0.397294  0.61505

80000     0.407407  0.0545946  0.300404  0.51441

90000     0.345679  0.0528432  0.242108  0.44925

Interpretation

For the water pump data:

·    84% (or 0.842215) of the water pumps survived bearing failures for at least 60000 miles

·    75% (or 0.751962) of the pumps survived gasket failures for at least 60000 miles

·    64% (or 0.641975) of the pumps survived both failure modes for at least 60000 miles

To have the greatest impact on improving the reliability of your pumps, focus on improving the gaskets.

 

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