Warranty Prediction

Prediction - Table of Predicted Number of Failures

  

The table of predicted number of failures displays information about the potential and predicted number of failures for future times:

·    The potential number of failures at a given future time period is the number of units at risk at the end of the data collection period (the "present time" in the example) plus the cumulative number of additional units that will ship in each subsequent time period.

·    The predicted number of failures is the cumulative number of failures that the model predicts from the end of the data collection period (the "present time") through the given number of future time periods.

·    The 95% Poisson confidence interval is a 95% confidence interval for the predicted number of failures.

Example Output

Table of Predicted Number of Failures

 

Future  Potential  Predicted

  Time  Number of  Number of   95% Poisson CI

Period   Failures   Failures    Lower    Upper

     1      11331     243.93   214.28   276.54

     2      12331     502.88   459.88   548.82

     3      13331     776.43   722.77   833.02

     4      14331    1064.19  1001.20  1130.10

     5      15331    1365.80  1294.31  1440.20

Interpretation

Five months from now, 15331 units will be at risk. With 95% confidence, you can expect the number of failures to fall between approximately 1294 and 1440.

 

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