Regression with Life Data

Table of Survival Probabilities - Probability of Survival

  

The table of survival probabilities provides the probability that the product survives until a particular time. Use these values to determine if your product meets reliability requirements or to compare the reliability of two or more product designs.

The table of survival probabilities consists of the following:

·    Time, which is the particular time until a certain probability of the product is predicted to survive.

·    Predictor row number, which indicates the combination of factor settings for that prediction.

·    Probability, which is the chance that the product will survive until a particular time.

·    95% confidence intervals, which provides a range of values likely to contain the true value of the parameter

Use these values only with an appropriate model for the data. If the model fits the data poorly, these estimates will be inaccurate.

Example Output

Table of Survival Probabilities

                                       95.0% Normal CI

Time  Design    Weight  Probability     Lower     Upper

 240  Standard     5.0     0.779767  0.528083  0.907631

 240  Standard     7.5     0.554478  0.334009  0.728223

 240  Standard    10.0     0.247078  0.054934  0.509869

 240  New          5.0     0.989346  0.950696  0.997734

 240  New          7.5     0.974927  0.912406  0.992991

 240  New         10.0     0.941580  0.812043  0.982746

Interpretation

For the compressor data:

·    Row 1 refers to the combination of a standard design and projectile weight of five pounds. For this combination, the model predicts that the 240 hour reliability is 0.779767. In other words, there is a 77.9767% chance that a standard compressor case subjected to a five pound projectile will survive until 240 hours.

·    Row 4 refers to the combination of a new design and projectile weight of five pounds. For this combination, the model predicts that the 240 hour reliability is 0.989346. In other words, there is a 98.9346% chance that a new compressor case subjected to a five pound projectile will survive until 240 hours.

By comparing the survival probabilities for the standard and new designs with the same projectile weight, you can see that the new design survives for a longer time than the standard design.

 

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