Double Exponential Smoothing

Predicted values - 95% Prediction Interval

  

The double exponential smoothing procedure displays the forecasts and their 95% prediction intervals. The prediction interval is a range of likely values of forecasts. Since you do not know the true value of the forecasts, the prediction interval allows you to guess their values based on the time series data. The forecast provides an estimation of the future realizations.

Example Output

Period  Forecast    Lower    Upper

25        387788   324546   451030

26        393620   318188   469051

27        399452   310644   488260

28        405284   302374   508193

29        411116   293640   528591

30        416948   284595   549300

Interpretation

For the sales data, each one of the six prediction intervals tells you that you can be 95% confident that the computer sales in that certain month will be between the shown limits. For example, you can be 95% confident that in the next month you will sell between 324546 and 451030 computers).