Single Exponential Smoothing

Predicted Values - 95% Prediction Interval

  

The single exponential smoothing procedure also displays the forecasts and their 95% prediction intervals. The prediction interval is a range of likely values of forecasts. Since you do not know the true value of the forecasts, the prediction interval allows you to guess their values based on the time series data. The forecast provides an estimation of the future realizations.

Example Output

Period  Forecast    Lower    Upper

61       55.9663  44.9292  67.0035

62       55.9663  44.9292  67.0035

63       55.9663  44.9292  67.0035

64       55.9663  44.9292  67.0035

65       55.9663  44.9292  67.0035

66       55.9663  44.9292  67.0035

Interpretation

For the employment data, each interval tells you that you can be 95% confident that the percentage of employment in the food industry over the next 6 months will be between 44.9292 and 67.0035.

 

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