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Single Exponential SmoothingPredicted Values - 95% Prediction Interval |
The single exponential smoothing procedure also displays the forecasts and their 95% prediction intervals. The prediction interval is a range of likely values of forecasts. Since you do not know the true value of the forecasts, the prediction interval allows you to guess their values based on the time series data. The forecast provides an estimation of the future realizations.
Example Output |
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61 55.9663 44.9292 67.0035 62 55.9663 44.9292 67.0035 63 55.9663 44.9292 67.0035 64 55.9663 44.9292 67.0035 65 55.9663 44.9292 67.0035 66 55.9663 44.9292 67.0035 |
Interpretation |
For the employment data, each interval tells you that you can be 95% confident that the percentage of employment in the food industry over the next 6 months will be between 44.9292 and 67.0035.
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